For a long time, I thought Elon Musk might've been Satoshi Nakamoto too. But it wasn't until I came across info about Nick Szabo that made me change my mind.
Also, Musk had an extremely busy 2007 by most accounts, including overseeing both Tesla Motors and SpaceX. He was also nearly broke, putting up his personal millions to save Tesla from going under. Not to mention, in 208, Musk also got a divorce from his wife. Surely, I don't think Musk had the time to develop and launch Bitcoin, let alone publicly comment on message boards.
But perhaps your initial analysis may support the theory of a different candidate. Like Nick Szabo.